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Making Projections into Values: Waiver-wire Value

Once you have a set of projections to work from, it should be put in a spreadsheet of some kind (projections you get from a draft kit which is in PDF format can be especially annoying here – prepare to do some typing).

When making up player values, the key piece of information to remember is that a player’s value is not simply the statistics they generate in an absolute sense. What matters is how much better that player is than someone you can get for free. I’ll be using this concept quite a bit in this guide – the value of a player you can get for free will be called “waiver-wire value”, and is an important number. Because you can get players of this particular level at any time during the season, there is no need to hang on to a player of this level, because you can get someone just like him any time you like. It is important to remember this, and beginning players consistently fail to grasp this concept: a player whose value is equivalent to the value of players freely available on the waiver wire has no value. When considering a trade of five waiver-wire level players for one player who is worth more, take the one player who is worth more.

This is why the number of teams in a league and the number of players on a team are important in the assessment of player value – because these numbers determine what waiver-wire value is for a particular league. The number of players claimed on some team in your league is equal to the number of teams in the league times the number of players per team, and the total number of players claimed in a league defines approximately what quality of player will be freely available after the draft (and throughout the season).

Next Section - Making Projections into Values: Modifying Projections


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