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Fantasy Draft Preparation: Why Projections?

The reasons for using player projections rather than player rankings or canned player values are simple. First, player rankings are mostly useless, as they give you no idea about the true value of players (e.g. is the second-best wide receiver worth more or less than the fifth-best running back?). Even if a single ranking includes different kinds of players, it gives you little idea about the size of value gaps between players, which is extremely important when drafting in any kind of format. Second, both rankings and simple player values are impossible to check out for yourself. There are a large number of people selling player valuations to you for your draft, and a lot of them are not very good at their jobs. Even from a reputable source, player valuations can sometimes be very badly done. It is very difficult to see if a draft kitís simple player values take into account most relevant information and will be useful to you in forecasting player values if you do not have access to the actual projections that a draft kit is using. Third, leagues are often different from one another in important ways. Aside from some of the scoring differences between leagues as discussed above, the number of teams in a league, the number of players per team, and the positions to be filled on a team all affect the relative value of each player in that league. Any differences between the settings for your league and the league settings assumed by the draft kit you purchase may make its player valuations less useful for your purposes.

Projections have none of these problems. The big problem with projections is that you have to create player valuations yourself. If you can get your projections into a spreadsheet or database program of some kind, you should be able to create player valuations without too much difficulty.

Next Section - Fantasy Draft Preparation: Getting Good Projections


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