Fantasy Draft Preparation: Overview
Before talking about draft preparation, this seems like a good place to sit down and talk about what fantasy sports really are. They are simply exercises in forecasting, down to a very granular level. You could make up a “fantasy rainfall” league if you wanted, where managers choose cities, and the manager whose cities get the most rainfall wins, and it would be very similar in nature to fantasy sports – but it’s not nearly as much fun to follow the weather as it is to follow sports teams.
At its base, the fantasy manager who wins a particular league is generally the one whose player forecasts turned out to match reality most closely. Sometimes a manager will get lucky on players despite generally poor evaluations, but fairly rarely will this lead to sustained success. There is some strategy involved in good management as well – it is possible to make up for poor initial evaluations through canny trading and active add/drop work, but it is a very difficult way to play and win. If you have any experience with real-life sports teams whose player evaluations were suspect (the 2006 Knicks are a particularly painful example), you will get some inkling of how badly things can go when you don’t have thorough and intelligent player evaluations. Since player evaluations are so important when making decisions about your team, they are especially so when preparing for the single most important event for your team – the draft.
Next Section - Fantasy Draft Preparation: A Little Self-Assessment