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Making Projections into Values: Fantasy Point Scoring

Given the concept of waiver wire value, it is conceptually clear how you assess player value. You take your player projections and group them by player position (e.g. quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, kickers), and then determine the value of a waiver-wire level player at each position. In a fantasy point scoring league, this is fairly easy. First, you determine how many fantasy points each playerís projected statistics will produce. Next, you rank the players by projected points, within your list of all players at the same position. You then estimate how many players at each position will find themselves claimed by some team after the draft (including players who will be claimed for non-starting bench positions). This will be based on the number of teams in your league, and the number of player slots at each position under your league settings.

Letís look at an example. Letís say you are playing in a twelve team fantasy football league, using fantasy point scoring. You have projections that you found online of all players, and checked a few individual player projections against what you thought those players would produce. You put the projections in a spreadsheet, and use an equation to determine how many fantasy points each player would produce in a season. You separate the players by position, and you take a look at the quarterbacks. In your league settings, you see that each team has a slot to play only one quarterback at a time. This means that twelve quarterbacks will play on someoneís team in your league in a given week, but most teams will have at least one backup quarterback on their bench, to use in a bye week or if the primary quarterback gets injured. Letís say you think about four teams will use two backup quarterbacks, and the rest will have one backup. That means that there will be 28 quarterbacks selected in your league. The waiver-wire level quarterback is the quarterback you have ranked 29th. Because you donít know exactly how many quarterbacks will be selected, it might make sense to use an average rather than a specific player Ė for example, your waiver-wire level quarterback could be the average points produced by quarterbacks ranked 27th through 31st in your rankings. You then assess the value of each quarterback as the points that player will produce, minus the number of points produced by your waiver-wire level quarterback.

In a fantasy points league, thatís all there is to it. Player value, as defined by player points over waiver wire value, is very distinct and easy to measure. In a league using rotisserie scoring, things are more complicated. This is because each player contributes in a variety of categories, and it is more difficult to combine all of these statistics into a single numerical value.

Note Ė in some cases, a playerís aggregate points over the course of a season arenít really the right measure. A perfect example can be found in a points league for fantasy baseball. Closers typically produce fewer points than starters (because closers pitch fewer innings than starters do), but often their point-per-inning production is far higher. If a manager is limited by season-long inning limit, and is allowed to use starters and relievers interchangeably, that manager should use relievers as much as possible, due to their higher points-per-inning output. In this case, an accurate statement of a pitcherís value would be something like {[(projected player points per inning) minus (waiver wire starter points per inning)] times (projected player innings)}. This is a special case, but the moral is to not be afraid to adjust player values when the process doesnít seem to apply.

Next Section - Making Projections into Values: Rotisserie Scoring


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