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2007 Fantasy Football Player Projection Competition

2007 Fantasy Football Player Projection Competition Results

The 2007 NFL season was the season of the unheralded, undrafted running back. Guys like Ryan Grant, Kenny Watson, Justin Fargas, LenDale White, Maurice Morris, Ron Dayne, Derrick Ward, Selvin Young, Najeh Davenport and especially Earnest Graham came out of absolutely nowhere to claim some genuine value at running back spots, while guys like Larry Johnson, Shaun Alexander, Deuce McAllister and Carnell WIlliams absolutely killed managers who spent a high level pick on them. The New England Patriots' regular season perfecto, setting countless scoring records along the way, made anyone involved in their passing attack worth their weight in gold. Tom Brady's season was so outstanding that - under pretty much any measure - a QB was more valuable than any RB in the 2007 season, even using relative measures.

The 2007 player projection competition differed a little from the 2006 version, in that we evaluated a lot more projection sets (23 in all). We really tried to get as many projections as we could this time, and we got most of the sites that offered actual projections (as opposed to rankings or simple cheat sheets). Rankings and cheat sheets are difficult to evaluate under league settings different than the ones for which they're designed. We continue to focus on projections as the best tools for preparing for a fantasy draft and fantasy season. We decided not to include Defense projections in this year's competition because many sites don't project defense performance at all, and it turned out once again that picking defenses at random was almost as good as most projections. In light of that, we decided that it was more fair to just evaluate projections of the QB, RB, WR and TE positions.

In the fantasy football world, there were some welcome developments in major pay sites that decided to offer their services for free. ESPN was especially notable in this regard, and we here are happy to see it. We still tried to get all the projections we could, even pay sites, but it wasn't clear to us that the free projections were any worse than the paid ones. Out of our top five projection sets, #1 and #3 were free. In fact, the worst three projections in the competition (and they were a good sight worse than the one that ranked #20) were all paid projections, and the one ranking #22 was the most expensive projection we got. Safe to say, people who bought that one (Rotodoc) did not get their money's worth. That's why we're doing this after all - to keep the people who make projections honest by making them accountable for the final quality of their projections.

It was clear that some of the performance of one projection set over another was due to simple luck, but it was also clear that some people did a better job than others in both years. In particular, Dominate Your League and Football Outsiders made the top six both years. The top two projections in 2007 were not included in the 2006 competition however - we'll see how they all do next year!
2007 Fantasy Football Player Projection Competition Results

Direct any questions regarding the submission, scoring, or rules of this competition to ppcompetitions@rotosource.com.


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